FairValue

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Declan

Gallagher

CBScotland · Ross County FC

№ 107544Emerging €68k +0.38

Player dossierPremiership

DeclanGallagher

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Ross County FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
34
Height
196 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
10 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Gallagher at €100k. Model A, which never saw Gallagher during training, estimates €68k: the market value is 46% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.46. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €153k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.38A €68k▼ −0.42B €153k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
31
Minutes
2,621
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
31/31
Min / app
85
Cards
6Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gallagher…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €100k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €100kModel A €68k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Declan Gallagher's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 67th, Minutes, two years 45th, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 39th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals67thAssists45thMinutes97thStarts39thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player83% defender median97th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2012
Peak
€750k
May 2021
Model target
€100k
Dec 2025
Valuations
24
6 club changes
Dec 2025€100kRoss County FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €100k, Ross County FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-07-31€50kDundee FC
2013-02-13€150kDundee FC
2013-10-08€250kDundee FC
2014-10-01€225kLivingston FC
2015-11-16€200kLivingston FC
2018-01-25€225kLivingston FC
2018-08-08€300kLivingston FC
2019-01-03€300kLivingston FC
2019-08-20€400kMotherwell FC
2020-02-05€400kMotherwell FC
2020-04-08€325kMotherwell FC
2020-07-21€500kMotherwell FC
2021-01-18€650kMotherwell FC
2021-05-28€750kMotherwell FC
2021-06-28€750kMotherwell FC
2021-12-31€600kAberdeen FC
2022-06-27€500kAberdeen FC
2022-12-13€450kSt. Mirren FC
2023-06-26€425kSt. Mirren FC
2023-12-05€375kDundee United FC
2024-06-21€300kDundee United FC
2024-12-03€250kDundee United FC
2025-06-17€200kDundee United FC
2025-12-10€100kRoss County FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.379

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 7% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€100kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 1% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€100kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gallagher appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).