FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Oumar

Camara

LWFrance · Vitória Guimarães SC

№ 1053206Established €4.8M +0.52

Player dossierLiga Portugal

OumarCamara

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Vitória Guimarães SC
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
France
Age
19
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Camara at €8M. Model A, which never saw Camara during training, estimates €4.8M: the market value is 67% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.67. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €11.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.52A €4.8M▼ −0.38B €11.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
33
Minutes
1,700
Goals
6
Assists
3
Started
20/33
Min / app
52
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Camara…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8MModel A €4.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Oumar Camara's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 60th, Assists per 90 55th, Minutes, two years 37th, Starts 53rd, Minutes, last 365 days 63rd, European club minutes 28th60thGoals55thAssists37thMinutes53rdStarts63rdRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

1,700 this player1,301 attacker median63rd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Sept 2025
Peak
€8M
May 2026
Model target
€8M
May 2026
Valuations
4
0 club changes
May 2026€8MVitória Guimarães SCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €8M, Vitória Guimarães SC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2025-09-30€300kVitória Guimarães SC
2025-12-18€1MVitória Guimarães SC
2026-03-19€5MVitória Guimarães SC
2026-05-28€8MVitória Guimarães SC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.515

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 84% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 74% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Camara appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).