FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Terem

Moffi

CFNigeria · FC Porto

№ 538874Established €5.5M +0.37

Player dossierLiga Portugal

TeremMoffi

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
FC Porto
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Nigeria
Age
27
Height
188 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Moffi at €8M. Model A, which never saw Moffi during training, estimates €5.5M: the market value is 45% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.45. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.37A €5.5M▲ +1.33B €2.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
33
Minutes
1,353
Goals
6
Assists
1
Started
14/33
Min / app
41
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Moffi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8MModel A €5.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Terem Moffi's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 76th, Assists per 90 20th, Minutes, two years 28th, Starts 24th, Minutes, last 365 days 50th, European club minutes 99th76thGoals20thAssists28thMinutes24thStarts50thRecent99thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

42% this player0% attacker median99th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Jan 2018
Peak
€25M
Oct 2023
Model target
€8M
May 2026
Valuations
25
4 club changes
May 2026€8MFC PortoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €8M, FC Porto. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-01-11€75kWithout Club
2020-01-08€350kKV Kortrijk
2020-02-11€800kKV Kortrijk
2020-03-30€1.5MKV Kortrijk
2020-04-08€1.3MKV Kortrijk
2020-08-06€3MKV Kortrijk
2020-10-15€6MFC Lorient
2021-04-09€8MFC Lorient
2021-06-04€10MFC Lorient
2021-10-08€12MFC Lorient
2021-12-16€10MFC Lorient
2022-05-30€9MFC Lorient
2022-09-19€12MFC Lorient
2022-11-02€15MFC Lorient
2023-03-27€20MOGC Nice
2023-06-27€20MOGC Nice
2023-10-16€25MOGC Nice
2023-12-18€25MOGC Nice
2024-06-03€25MOGC Nice
2024-10-07€20MOGC Nice
2024-12-10€18MOGC Nice
2025-03-24€15MOGC Nice
2025-06-03€15MOGC Nice
2025-12-15€10MOGC Nice
2026-05-28€8MFC Porto

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.373

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 84% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 74% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Moffi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).