Checking model
Terminal Models
Within-league signed gap · Model A
+0.093
95% CI +0.063 to +0.124 · about +10%
04 / 07 · Subgroups
Within-league signed gap vs UEFA
| Row | Estimate | 95% CI low | 95% CI high |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recent arrivals (410 non-UEFA) | 0.1176 | 0.0490 | 0.1855 |
| Established players (1,086 non-UEFA) | 0.0801 | 0.0458 | 0.1175 |
Within-league signed gap vs UEFA
| Row | Estimate | 95% CI low | 95% CI high |
|---|---|---|---|
| South American (CONMEBOL) (533 non-UEFA) | 0.1184 | 0.0696 | 0.1654 |
| African (CAF) (675 non-UEFA) | 0.0835 | 0.0435 | 0.1250 |
| Born in a UEFA country (376 non-UEFA) | 0.0712 | 0.0141 | 0.1206 |
| Born outside UEFA countries (1,120 non-UEFA) | 0.1007 | 0.0655 | 0.1353 |
Within-league signed gap vs UEFA
| Row | Estimate | 95% CI low | 95% CI high |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attack (532 non-UEFA) | 0.0921 | 0.0352 | 0.1510 |
| Midfield (395 non-UEFA) | 0.0785 | 0.0224 | 0.1349 |
| Defence (508 non-UEFA) | 0.0983 | 0.0465 | 0.1539 |
| Goalkeeper (61 non-UEFA) | 0.1299 | −0.0156 | 0.2834 |
Within-league signed gap vs UEFA
| Row | Estimate | 95% CI low | 95% CI high |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs EU-mobile UEFA players (1,496 non-UEFA) | 0.0690 | 0.0326 | 0.1090 |
| vs other UEFA players (1,496 non-UEFA) | 0.0538 | −0.0282 | 0.1342 |
The gap is larger for recent arrivals and South American players, smaller for players born in UEFA countries and for those established in these leagues: consistent with migrants passing a stricter filter the model cannot see, but not proof of it. Subgroups are descriptive; with this many comparisons some intervals exclude zero by chance.