Terminal Models

Fairness Audit

Model AModel B

Overlay Model B

Within-league signed gap · Model A

+0.093

95% CI +0.063 to +0.124 · about +10%

Model A+0.093

Model B+0.164

A − B−0.071

Model A − Model B: −0.071
Accuracy gap (MAE): +0.011
Held-out players: 5,820

03 / 07 · Leagues

Where does the gap sit?

Signed gap by leaguewithin-league, log scale, 95% CI

GapSampleA–Z

Premier LigaRussia, 108 non-UEFA+0.264
Süper LigTürkiye, 127 non-UEFA+0.257
Super LeagueGreece, 93 non-UEFA (pooled only)+0.237
Premier LihaUkraine, 69 non-UEFA (pooled only)+0.158
Pro LeagueBelgium, 108 non-UEFA+0.130
PremiershipScotland, 55 non-UEFA (pooled only)+0.115
EredivisieNetherlands, 83 non-UEFA (pooled only)+0.075
LaLigaSpain, 123 non-UEFA+0.071
Ligue 1France, 177 non-UEFA+0.038
Premier LeagueEngland, 135 non-UEFA+0.035
Serie AItaly, 112 non-UEFA+0.010
SuperligaDenmark, 48 non-UEFA (pooled only)+0.005
BundesligaGermany, 80 non-UEFA (pooled only)+0.003
Liga PortugalPortugal, 178 non-UEFA−0.017

Within-league signed gap, log scale, 95% CI

Show as a table

Signed gap by league
Row	Estimate	95% CI low	95% CI high
Premier Liga (Russia, 108 non-UEFA)	0.2643	0.1474	0.3840
Süper Lig (Türkiye, 127 non-UEFA)	0.2565	0.1393	0.3753
Super League (Greece, 93 non-UEFA (pooled only))	0.2372	0.1141	0.3617
Premier Liha (Ukraine, 69 non-UEFA (pooled only))	0.1575	0.0366	0.2694
Pro League (Belgium, 108 non-UEFA)	0.1304	0.0258	0.2381
Premiership (Scotland, 55 non-UEFA (pooled only))	0.1149	−0.0769	0.3043
Eredivisie (Netherlands, 83 non-UEFA (pooled only))	0.0753	−0.0344	0.1833
LaLiga (Spain, 123 non-UEFA)	0.0713	−0.0348	0.1773
Ligue 1 (France, 177 non-UEFA)	0.0379	−0.0557	0.1326
Premier League (England, 135 non-UEFA)	0.0349	−0.0628	0.1316
Serie A (Italy, 112 non-UEFA)	0.0104	−0.0955	0.1121
Superliga (Denmark, 48 non-UEFA (pooled only))	0.0053	−0.1925	0.1980
Bundesliga (Germany, 80 non-UEFA (pooled only))	0.0031	−0.1099	0.1130
Liga Portugal (Portugal, 178 non-UEFA)	−0.0169	−0.1197	0.0821

Non-UEFA players per leaguehollow markers: under 100, pooled only

Premier Liga108
Süper Lig127
Super League93
Premier Liha69
Pro League108
Premiership55
Eredivisie83
LaLiga123
Ligue 1177
Premier League135
Serie A112
Superliga48
Bundesliga80
Liga Portugal178

Among leagues with a league-level estimate, under Model A the gap is clearly above zero in Russia, Türkiye and Belgium. In Spain, France, England, Italy and Portugal the interval includes zero. Leagues with fewer than 100 non-UEFA players are descriptive only. This shows where the gap sits, not why.

Row

Estimate

95% CI low

95% CI high

Premier Liga (Russia, 108 non-UEFA)

0.2643

0.1474

0.3840

Süper Lig (Türkiye, 127 non-UEFA)

0.2565

0.1393

0.3753

Super League (Greece, 93 non-UEFA (pooled only))

0.2372

0.1141

0.3617

Premier Liha (Ukraine, 69 non-UEFA (pooled only))

0.1575

0.0366

0.2694

Pro League (Belgium, 108 non-UEFA)

0.1304

0.0258

0.2381

Premiership (Scotland, 55 non-UEFA (pooled only))

0.1149

−0.0769

0.3043

Eredivisie (Netherlands, 83 non-UEFA (pooled only))

0.0753

−0.0344

0.1833

LaLiga (Spain, 123 non-UEFA)

0.0713

−0.0348

0.1773

Ligue 1 (France, 177 non-UEFA)

0.0379

−0.0557

0.1326

Premier League (England, 135 non-UEFA)

0.0349

−0.0628

0.1316

Serie A (Italy, 112 non-UEFA)

0.0104

−0.0955

0.1121

Superliga (Denmark, 48 non-UEFA (pooled only))

0.0053

−0.1925

0.1980

Bundesliga (Germany, 80 non-UEFA (pooled only))

0.0031

−0.1099

0.1130

Liga Portugal (Portugal, 178 non-UEFA)

−0.0169

−0.1197

0.0821

Fairness Audit

Where does the gap sit?

Signed gap by leaguewithin-league, log scale, 95% CI

Non-UEFA players per leaguehollow markers: under 100, pooled only

How to read the observatory

Fairness Audit

Where does the gap sit?

Signed gap by leaguewithin-league, log scale, 95% CI

Non-UEFA players per leaguehollow markers: under 100, pooled only

How to read the observatory