Hamza
Güreler
CBTürkiye · Basaksehir FK
Player dossierSüper Lig
HamzaGüreler
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Basaksehir FK
- League
- Süper Lig
- Nationality
- Türkiye
- Age
- 20
- Height
- 192 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 21 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Güreler at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Güreler during training, estimates €3.2M: the market value is 43% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.76. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 34
- Minutes
- 1,721
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 16/34
- Min / app
- 51
- Cards
- 5Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Güreler…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
20% this player0% defender median84th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Feb 2024
- Peak
- €2M
- Mar 2025
- Model target
- €1.8M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 10
- 0 club changes
May 2026: €1.8M, Basaksehir FK. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-10 | €50k | Basaksehir FK |
| 2024-03-15 | €150k | Basaksehir FK |
| 2024-05-31 | €200k | Basaksehir FK |
| 2024-10-04 | €1.5M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2024-12-23 | €1.8M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2025-03-20 | €2M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2025-06-18 | €2M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2025-12-17 | €2M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2026-03-05 | €2M | Basaksehir FK |
| 2026-05-21 | €1.8M | Basaksehir FK |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.566
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M
Valued above 60% of the 428 Süper Lig players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 48% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Güreler appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- HadergjonajRMAlanyaspor · Süper Lig€1.8M
- HagiAMAlanyaspor · Süper Lig€1.8M
- ManajCFSivasspor · Süper Lig€1.8M
- Dele-BashiruDMGenclerbirligi Ankara · Süper Lig€1.8M
- LejeuneCBRayo Vallecano · defenders€1.8M
- IngasonCBPanathinaikos · defenders€1.8M
- FriedrichCBBorussia Mönchengladbach · defenders€1.8M
- BurgessCBUnion Saint-Gilloise · defenders€1.8M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).