FairValue

Checking model

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Portrait of Joaquin Seys

Joaquin

Seys

LBBelgium · Club Brugge KV

№ 981196Elite €19.2M +0.04

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPro League

JoaquinSeys

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Club Brugge KV
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
21
Height
178 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Seys at €20M. Model A, which never saw Seys during training, estimates €19.2M: the market value is 4% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €30.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.04A €19.2M▼ −0.41B €30.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
89
Minutes
6,679
Goals
7
Assists
8
Started
80/89
Min / app
75
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Seys…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €20MModel A €19.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Joaquin Seys's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 85th, Assists per 90 79th, Minutes, two years 97th, Starts 68th, Minutes, last 365 days 99th, European club minutes 92nd85thGoals79thAssists97thMinutes68thStarts99thRecent92ndEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

4,074 this player1,687 defender median99th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Oct 2022
Peak
€20M
Jun 2026
Model target
€20M
Jun 2026
Valuations
13
1 club change
Jun 2026€20MClub Brugge KVValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €20M, Club Brugge KV. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-10-05€250kClub NXT
2022-12-22€250kClub NXT
2023-05-30€400kClub NXT
2023-12-28€500kClub NXT
2024-06-20€600kClub NXT
2024-10-02€3.5MClub Brugge KV
2024-12-11€7MClub Brugge KV
2025-03-26€8MClub Brugge KV
2025-06-12€8MClub Brugge KV
2025-10-01€15MClub Brugge KV
2025-12-10€15MClub Brugge KV
2026-03-13€17MClub Brugge KV
2026-06-04€20MClub Brugge KV

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.042

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Joint 9th highest observed value among 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 91% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Seys appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).