FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Portrait of Pau Cubarsí

Pau

Cubarsí

CBSpain · FC Barcelona

№ 962110World Class €108M −0.30

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

PauCubarsí

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
FC Barcelona
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
19
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Cubarsí at €80M. Model A, which never saw Cubarsí during training, estimates €108M: the market value is 26% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €70.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.30A €108M▲ +0.13B €70.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
104
Minutes
8,192
Goals
2
Assists
4
Started
93/104
Min / app
79
Cards
9Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Cubarsí…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €80M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €80MModel A €108M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Pau Cubarsí's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 42nd, Assists per 90 53rd, Minutes, two years 100th, Starts 67th, Minutes, last 365 days 98th, European club minutes 86th42ndGoals53rdAssists100thMinutes67thStarts98thRecent86thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

8,192 this player2,860 defender median100th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Oct 2023
Peak
€80M
Jun 2025
Model target
€80M
Jun 2026
Valuations
9
1 club change
Jun 2026€80MFC BarcelonaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €80M, FC Barcelona. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-10-13€500kFC Barcelona Atlètic
2023-12-20€1.5MFC Barcelona Atlètic
2024-03-21€25MFC Barcelona
2024-06-07€30MFC Barcelona
2024-10-11€40MFC Barcelona
2024-12-27€70MFC Barcelona
2025-06-09€80MFC Barcelona
2025-12-12€80MFC Barcelona
2026-06-05€80MFC Barcelona

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.303

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

10th highest observed value among 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€80MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Joint 2nd highest observed value among 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€80MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Cubarsí appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).