FairValue

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Federico

Valverde

CMUruguay · Real Madrid

№ 369081World Class €91.5M −0.02

Player dossierLaLiga

FedericoValverde

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Real Madrid
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Uruguay
Age
27
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Valverde at €90M. Model A, which never saw Valverde during training, estimates €91.5M: the market value is 2% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €55.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.02A €91.5M▲ +0.48B €55.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
113
Minutes
9,624
Goals
20
Assists
21
Started
108/113
Min / app
85
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Valverde…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €90M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €90MModel A €91.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Federico Valverde's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 80th, Assists per 90 83rd, Minutes, two years 100th, Starts 94th, Minutes, last 365 days 100th, European club minutes 96th80thGoals83rdAssists100thMinutes94thStarts100thRecent96thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

9,624 this player2,607 midfielder median100th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Aug 2015
Peak
€130M
Oct 2024
Model target
€90M
Jun 2026
Valuations
28
3 club changes
Jun 2026€90MReal MadridValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €90M, Real Madrid. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-08-14€400kCA Peñarol
2016-02-25€450kCA Peñarol
2016-08-01€500kReal Madrid Castilla
2016-10-27€1MReal Madrid Castilla
2017-02-02€1MReal Madrid Castilla
2017-06-22€3MReal Madrid Castilla
2018-01-01€3MDeportivo de La Coruña
2018-05-30€6MDeportivo de La Coruña
2018-12-21€6MReal Madrid
2019-06-11€20MReal Madrid
2019-12-20€50MReal Madrid
2020-03-05€60MReal Madrid
2020-04-08€54MReal Madrid
2020-10-08€70MReal Madrid
2021-01-05€70MReal Madrid
2021-06-10€65MReal Madrid
2021-12-30€65MReal Madrid
2022-06-03€70MReal Madrid
2022-09-23€80MReal Madrid
2022-11-07€100MReal Madrid
2023-06-13€100MReal Madrid
2023-12-22€100MReal Madrid
2024-06-07€120MReal Madrid
2024-10-11€130MReal Madrid
2024-12-27€130MReal Madrid
2025-06-09€130MReal Madrid
2025-12-12€120MReal Madrid
2026-06-05€90MReal Madrid

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.017

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Joint 8th highest observed value among 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€90MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 99% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€90MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Valverde appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).