FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Gabriel

CBBrazil · Arsenal FC

№ 435338World Class €54.1M +0.33

Player dossierPremier League

Gabriel

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Arsenal FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Brazil
Age
28
Height
190 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gabriel at €75M. Model A, which never saw Gabriel during training, estimates €54.1M: the market value is 39% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.39. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €40.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.33A €54.1M▲ +0.62B €40.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
88
Minutes
7,379
Goals
9
Assists
8
Started
83/88
Min / app
84
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gabriel…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €75M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €75MModel A €54.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Gabriel's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 89th, Assists per 90 77th, Minutes, two years 99th, Starts 82nd, Minutes, last 365 days 99th, European club minutes 88th89thGoals77thAssists99thMinutes82ndStarts99thRecent88thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

4,090 this player1,687 defender median99th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€125k
May 2016
Peak
€75M
Oct 2024
Model target
€75M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
4 club changes
Jun 2026€75MArsenal FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €75M, Arsenal FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-05-27€125kAvaí FC
2016-07-23€350kAvaí FC
2017-06-01€600kLOSC Lille
2018-01-24€600kESTAC Troyes
2018-12-17€600kLOSC Lille
2019-03-07€1.5MLOSC Lille
2019-06-03€4MLOSC Lille
2019-09-27€10MLOSC Lille
2019-12-19€15MLOSC Lille
2020-03-13€22MLOSC Lille
2020-04-08€17.5MLOSC Lille
2020-08-03€20MLOSC Lille
2020-10-13€28MArsenal FC
2021-03-18€25MArsenal FC
2021-06-08€25MArsenal FC
2021-12-23€25MArsenal FC
2022-03-29€30MArsenal FC
2022-06-15€38MArsenal FC
2022-11-03€40MArsenal FC
2023-03-16€50MArsenal FC
2023-06-20€55MArsenal FC
2023-12-19€60MArsenal FC
2024-03-14€65MArsenal FC
2024-05-27€70MArsenal FC
2024-10-01€75MArsenal FC
2024-12-16€75MArsenal FC
2025-05-30€75MArsenal FC
2025-12-09€75MArsenal FC
2026-06-03€75MArsenal FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.326

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 95% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€75MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

6th highest observed value among 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€75MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gabriel appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).