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Renan

Ribeiro

GKBrazil · CF Estrela Amadora

№ 95142Emerging €190k −0.64

Player dossierLiga Portugal

RenanRibeiro

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
CF Estrela Amadora
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Brazil
Age
36
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ribeiro at €100k. Model A, which never saw Ribeiro during training, estimates €190k: the market value is 47% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.90. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €289k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.64A €190k▼ −1.06B €289k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
33
Minutes
2,970
Started
33/33
Min / app
90
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ribeiro…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €100k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €100kModel A €190k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Renan Ribeiro's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 54th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 78th, European club minutes 32nd54thMinutes62ndStarts78thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,970 this player1,560 goalkeeper median78th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,970

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Feb 2009
Peak
€3.5M
Jun 2019
Model target
€100k
May 2026
Valuations
40
8 club changes
May 2026€100kCF Estrela AmadoraValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €100k, CF Estrela Amadora. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2009-02-22€200kUnknown
2009-09-06€800kClube Atlético Mineiro
2009-10-05€600kClube Atlético Mineiro
2010-04-15€300kClube Atlético Mineiro
2010-12-10€1MClube Atlético Mineiro
2011-08-08€800kClube Atlético Mineiro
2011-12-08€900kClube Atlético Mineiro
2012-05-24€900kClube Atlético Mineiro
2012-08-12€750kClube Atlético Mineiro
2012-12-05€750kClube Atlético Mineiro
2013-05-30€500kSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2013-08-26€400kSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2014-03-28€400kSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2015-02-01€500kSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2015-05-31€500kSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2015-12-15€1MSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2016-05-27€750kSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2016-11-28€750kSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2017-12-07€750kSão Paulo Futebol Clube
2018-06-13€1MGD Estoril Praia
2019-01-11€2MSporting CP
2019-06-07€3.5MSporting CP
2019-12-30€3.5MSporting CP
2020-02-11€2.5MSporting CP
2020-04-08€2MSporting CP
2020-08-17€2MSporting CP
2020-10-22€1.5MSporting CP
2021-01-28€1MSporting CP
2021-05-21€600kSporting CP
2021-12-27€600kSporting CP
2022-05-31€500kSporting CP
2022-10-07€350kWithout Club
2023-03-28€250kWithout Club
2024-03-28€200kHartford Athletic
2024-05-28€150kHartford Athletic
2024-10-30€100kHartford Athletic
2025-04-04€50kWithout Club
2025-09-30€100kCF Estrela Amadora
2025-12-18€100kCF Estrela Amadora
2026-05-28€100kCF Estrela Amadora

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.644

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 2% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€100kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 3% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€100kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ribeiro appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).