Zach
Abbott
CBEngland · Nottingham Forest
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
ZachAbbott
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Nottingham Forest
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- England
- Age
- 20
- Height
- 180 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Abbott at €4M. Model A, which never saw Abbott during training, estimates €9.8M: the market value is 59% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.45. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 12
- Minutes
- 814
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 9/12
- Min / app
- 68
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Abbott…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
62% this player0% defender median100th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €250k
- Nov 2022
- Peak
- €4M
- Jun 2026
- Model target
- €4M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 7
- 2 club changes
Jun 2026: €4M, Nottingham Forest. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-03 | €250k | Nottingham Forest U18 |
| 2023-12-19 | €300k | Nottingham Forest U21 |
| 2024-12-16 | €300k | Nottingham Forest U21 |
| 2025-05-30 | €300k | Nottingham Forest U21 |
| 2025-12-09 | €300k | Nottingham Forest |
| 2026-03-09 | €3M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2026-06-03 | €4M | Nottingham Forest |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.897
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 16% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 65% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Abbott appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- OrtegaGKNottingham Forest · Premier League€4M
- AreolaGKWest Ham United · Premier League€4M
- WilsonCFWest Ham United · Premier League€4M
- BarkleyCMAston Villa · Premier League€4M
- KolasinacCBAtalanta BC · defenders€4M
- TagliaficoLBOlympique Lyon · defenders€4M
- BurnCBNewcastle United · defenders€4M
- SchärCBNewcastle United · defenders€4M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).