FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Franculino

CFGuinea-Bissau · FC Midtjylland

№ 929090Elite €14.8M +0.40

Player dossierSuperliga

Franculino

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
FC Midtjylland
League
Superliga
Nationality
Guinea-Bissau
Age
21
Height
186 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Franculino at €22M. Model A, which never saw Franculino during training, estimates €14.8M: the market value is 49% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.49. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €26.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.40A €14.8M▼ −0.17B €26.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
61
Minutes
3,811
Goals
33
Assists
8
Started
47/61
Min / app
62
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Franculino…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €22M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €22MModel A €14.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Franculino's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 99th, Assists per 90 66th, Minutes, two years 79th, Starts 79th, Minutes, last 365 days 75th, European club minutes 97th99thGoals66thAssists79thMinutes79thStarts75thRecent97thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.78 this player0.26 attacker median99th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Jun 2022
Peak
€22M
Dec 2025
Model target
€22M
May 2026
Valuations
9
2 club changes
May 2026€22MFC MidtjyllandValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €22M, FC Midtjylland. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-06-27€150kSL Benfica U19
2023-01-31€1MSL Benfica U23
2023-09-19€1.2MFC Midtjylland
2023-12-21€2.5MFC Midtjylland
2024-06-10€7.5MFC Midtjylland
2024-12-09€10MFC Midtjylland
2025-06-16€13MFC Midtjylland
2025-12-15€22MFC Midtjylland
2026-05-25€22MFC Midtjylland

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.399

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

The highest observed value among 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€22MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 89% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€22MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Franculino appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).