FairValue

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Portrait of Ermedin Demirovic

Ermedin

Demirovic

CFBosnia-Herzegovina · VfB Stuttgart

№ 335457Elite €30.2M −0.32

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

ErmedinDemirovic

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
VfB Stuttgart
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Age
28
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Demirovic at €22M. Model A, which never saw Demirovic during training, estimates €30.2M: the market value is 27% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.37. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €27.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.32A €30.2M▼ −0.21B €27.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
86
Minutes
5,015
Goals
32
Assists
11
Started
54/86
Min / app
58
Cards
13Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Demirovic…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €22M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €22MModel A €30.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Ermedin Demirovic's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 94th, Assists per 90 69th, Minutes, two years 91st, Starts 56th, Minutes, last 365 days 81st, European club minutes 82nd94thGoals69thAssists91stMinutes56thStarts81stRecent82ndEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.57 this player0.26 attacker median94th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Mar 2018
Peak
€28M
Mar 2024
Model target
€22M
May 2026
Valuations
26
6 club changes
May 2026€22MVfB StuttgartValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €22M, VfB Stuttgart. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-03-22€1MDeportivo Alavés B
2018-05-30€1MDeportivo Alavés B
2019-01-08€1MFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2019-02-19€1MUD Almería
2019-06-29€1MUD Almería
2020-01-06€1MFC St. Gallen 1879
2020-04-08€900kFC St. Gallen 1879
2020-07-31€3MFC St. Gallen 1879
2020-09-16€4MSC Freiburg
2021-02-10€10MSC Freiburg
2021-06-09€12MSC Freiburg
2021-10-07€9MSC Freiburg
2021-12-22€7.5MSC Freiburg
2022-06-09€6MSC Freiburg
2022-11-09€9MFC Augsburg
2023-03-29€12MFC Augsburg
2023-06-22€12MFC Augsburg
2023-10-18€14MFC Augsburg
2023-12-14€20MFC Augsburg
2024-03-27€28MFC Augsburg
2024-05-29€28MFC Augsburg
2024-12-20€28MVfB Stuttgart
2025-03-27€22MVfB Stuttgart
2025-06-05€22MVfB Stuttgart
2025-12-19€22MVfB Stuttgart
2026-05-27€22MVfB Stuttgart

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.318

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 85% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€22MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 89% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€22MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Demirovic appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).