Lucas
Pires
LBBrazil · Burnley FC
Player dossierPremier League
LucasPires
LBLeft-BackDefender
- Club
- Burnley FC
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 182 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Premier LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Pires at €4M. Model A, which never saw Pires during training, estimates €8.2M: the market value is 51% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.05. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €603k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 23
- Minutes
- 1,587
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 17/23
- Min / app
- 69
- Cards
- 1Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pires…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Minutes, last 365 days
Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.
1,587 this player1,687 defender median48th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €1M
- Apr 2022
- Peak
- €5M
- May 2025
- Model target
- €4M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 13
- 2 club changes
Jun 2026: €4M, Burnley FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-06 | €1M | Santos FC |
| 2022-08-19 | €2M | Santos FC |
| 2022-11-14 | €2M | Santos FC |
| 2023-04-07 | €2M | Santos FC |
| 2023-07-25 | €1.5M | Cádiz CF |
| 2023-10-13 | €2M | Cádiz CF |
| 2023-12-22 | €2M | Cádiz CF |
| 2024-06-07 | €2M | Cádiz CF |
| 2024-12-30 | €2M | Burnley FC |
| 2025-03-28 | €4M | Burnley FC |
| 2025-05-27 | €5M | Burnley FC |
| 2025-12-09 | €5M | Burnley FC |
| 2026-06-03 | €4M | Burnley FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.718
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 16% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 65% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Pires appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- OrtegaGKNottingham Forest · Premier League€4M
- AreolaGKWest Ham United · Premier League€4M
- WilsonCFWest Ham United · Premier League€4M
- BarkleyCMAston Villa · Premier League€4M
- KolasinacCBAtalanta BC · defenders€4M
- TagliaficoLBOlympique Lyon · defenders€4M
- BurnCBNewcastle United · defenders€4M
- SchärCBNewcastle United · defenders€4M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).