FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Noahkai Banks

Noahkai

Banks

CBUnited States · FC Augsburg

№ 923945Elite €15.4M +0.26

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

NoahkaiBanks

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
FC Augsburg
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
United States
Age
19
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Banks at €20M. Model A, which never saw Banks during training, estimates €15.4M: the market value is 30% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.30. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.26A €15.4M▲ +1.11B €6.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
31
Minutes
2,001
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
22/31
Min / app
65
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Banks…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €20MModel A €15.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Noahkai Banks's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 60th, Assists per 90 54th, Minutes, two years 34th, Starts 28th, Minutes, last 365 days 52nd, European club minutes 30th60thGoals54thAssists34thMinutes28thStarts52ndRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.04 this player0.03 defender median60th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Jun 2024
Peak
€22M
Mar 2026
Model target
€20M
May 2026
Valuations
8
1 club change
May 2026€20MFC AugsburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €20M, FC Augsburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-06-27€150kFC Augsburg U19
2024-12-20€150kFC Augsburg
2025-03-27€6MFC Augsburg
2025-06-05€6MFC Augsburg
2025-10-14€10MFC Augsburg
2025-12-19€15MFC Augsburg
2026-03-20€22MFC Augsburg
2026-05-27€20MFC Augsburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.264

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 82% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 91% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Banks appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).