FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Sergiy

Sten

LWUkraine · NK Veres Rivne

№ 923512Emerging €182k +0.10

Player dossierPremier Liha

SergiySten

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
NK Veres Rivne
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
24
Height
181 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sten at €200k. Model A, which never saw Sten during training, estimates €182k: the market value is 10% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.10. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €370k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.10A €182k▼ −0.62B €370k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
18
Minutes
586
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
7/18
Min / app
33
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sten…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €200kModel A €182k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Sergiy Sten's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 3rd, Assists per 90 6th, Minutes, two years 5th, Starts 20th, Minutes, last 365 days 19th, European club minutes 28th3rdGoals6thAssists5thMinutes20thStarts19thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% attacker median28th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Mar 2022
Peak
€200k
Jun 2026
Model target
€200k
Jun 2026
Valuations
10
3 club changes
Jun 2026€200kNK Veres RivneValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €200k, NK Veres Rivne. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-03-23€25kFC Uzhgorod
2022-05-18€25kFC Uzhgorod
2022-12-06€50kEpicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi
2023-06-21€75kEpicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi
2023-12-11€150kEpicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi
2024-06-06€175kEpicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi
2024-12-17€175kMetalist 1925 Kharkiv
2025-06-10€150kMetalist 1925 Kharkiv
2025-12-18€150kNK Veres Rivne
2026-06-02€200kNK Veres Rivne

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.095

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 10% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 4% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Sten appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).