Nélson
Oliveira
CFPortugal · Vitória Guimarães SC
Player dossierLiga Portugal
NélsonOliveira
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- Vitória Guimarães SC
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 34
- Height
- 186 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Oliveira at €200k. Model A, which never saw Oliveira during training, estimates €355k: the market value is 44% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.78. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €624k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 67
- Minutes
- 3,696
- Goals
- 9
- Assists
- 5
- Started
- 45/67
- Min / app
- 55
- Cards
- 12Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Oliveira…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
3,696 this player2,242 attacker median77th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €500k
- Feb 2010
- Peak
- €6M
- Jul 2012
- Model target
- €200k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 37
- 13 club changes
May 2026: €200k, Vitória Guimarães SC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-02-05 | €500k | Rio Ave FC |
| 2011-02-04 | €1.2M | FC Paços de Ferreira |
| 2011-06-28 | €1.8M | FC Paços de Ferreira |
| 2011-09-21 | €2.8M | SL Benfica |
| 2012-02-02 | €3M | SL Benfica |
| 2012-04-01 | €4M | SL Benfica |
| 2012-07-07 | €6M | SL Benfica |
| 2012-08-20 | €6M | Deportivo de La Coruña |
| 2013-01-11 | €4M | Deportivo de La Coruña |
| 2013-06-14 | €3M | Deportivo de La Coruña |
| 2014-01-14 | €4.5M | Stade Rennais FC |
| 2015-02-12 | €4M | Swansea City |
| 2015-07-01 | €4M | SL Benfica |
| 2016-04-20 | €4M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2016-07-29 | €3M | SL Benfica |
| 2016-09-01 | €4.5M | Norwich City |
| 2017-02-27 | €4.5M | Norwich City |
| 2017-09-18 | €5M | Norwich City |
| 2018-02-27 | €5M | Norwich City |
| 2018-09-24 | €5M | Norwich City |
| 2019-06-28 | €3.5M | Norwich City |
| 2019-12-18 | €3.5M | AEK Athens |
| 2020-04-08 | €2.8M | AEK Athens |
| 2020-08-04 | €4M | AEK Athens |
| 2021-02-12 | €2.5M | AEK Athens |
| 2021-11-01 | €2M | PAOK Thessaloniki |
| 2022-06-09 | €1.5M | PAOK Thessaloniki |
| 2022-11-07 | €1.5M | PAOK Thessaloniki |
| 2023-05-22 | €1.2M | PAOK Thessaloniki |
| 2023-09-27 | €950k | Konyaspor |
| 2023-12-21 | €800k | Konyaspor |
| 2024-03-08 | €600k | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2024-06-06 | €500k | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2024-12-19 | €500k | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2025-05-30 | €350k | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2025-12-18 | €300k | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2026-05-28 | €200k | Vitória Guimarães SC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.574
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 5% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 4% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Oliveira appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- TeixeiraCMGD Chaves · Liga Portugal€200k
- SimãoGKAvs Futebol · Liga Portugal€200k
- JorqueraLWMoreirense FC · Liga Portugal€200k
- MoudjatovicLWCD Tondela · Liga Portugal€200k
- WolfswinkelCFFC Twente Enschede · attackers€200k
- MortensenCFAarhus GF · attackers€200k
- LoukinasCFNiki Volou · attackers€200k
- NgbakotoRWVejle Boldklub · attackers€200k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).