Luc DeFougerolles

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club: FCV Dender EH
League: Pro League
Nationality: Canada
Age: 20
Height: 183 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Fougerolles at €1M. Model A, which never saw Fougerolles during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 15% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 27
Minutes: 1,655
Goals: 0
Assists: 1
Started: 18/27
Min / app: 61
Cards: 4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Fougerolles…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.05 this player0.04 defender median60th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €250k; Oct 2023
Peak: €1M; Dec 2025
Model target: €1M; Jun 2026
Valuations: 8; 1 club change

Jun 2026€1MFCV Dender EHValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1M, FCV Dender EH. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2023-10-09	€250k	Fulham FC U21
2023-12-19	€250k	Fulham FC U21
2024-06-17	€300k	Fulham FC U21
2024-12-27	€250k	Fulham FC U21
2025-05-30	€250k	Fulham FC U21
2025-10-01	€700k	FCV Dender EH
2025-12-10	€1M	FCV Dender EH
2026-06-04	€1M	FCV Dender EH

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.158

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 27% of the 350 Pro League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Fougerolles appears

TerminalPro League in the Player Explorer
TerminalPro League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).