César
Azpilicueta
CBSpain · Sevilla FC
Player dossierLaLiga
CésarAzpilicueta
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Sevilla FC
- League
- LaLiga
- Nationality
- Spain
- Age
- 36
- Height
- 178 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 5 Jun 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Azpilicueta at €1M. Model A, which never saw Azpilicueta during training, estimates €551k: the market value is 81% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.81. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €488k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 37
- Minutes
- 2,416
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 31/37
- Min / app
- 65
- Cards
- 7Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Azpilicueta…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
5% this player0% defender median66th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €400k
- Aug 2007
- Peak
- €40M
- Mar 2018
- Model target
- €1M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 45
- 4 club changes
Jun 2026: €1M, Sevilla FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2007-08-28 | €400k | CA Osasuna |
| 2008-02-04 | €1.2M | CA Osasuna |
| 2008-07-22 | €2M | CA Osasuna |
| 2008-10-15 | €3.6M | CA Osasuna |
| 2009-01-21 | €3.6M | CA Osasuna |
| 2009-07-22 | €5M | CA Osasuna |
| 2009-12-02 | €6M | CA Osasuna |
| 2010-04-08 | €7M | CA Osasuna |
| 2011-05-24 | €6.5M | Olympique Marseille |
| 2011-12-24 | €6.5M | Olympique Marseille |
| 2012-05-23 | €7.5M | Olympique Marseille |
| 2012-09-09 | €9M | Chelsea FC |
| 2013-01-28 | €14M | Chelsea FC |
| 2013-07-02 | €18M | Chelsea FC |
| 2014-01-15 | €18M | Chelsea FC |
| 2014-08-12 | €20M | Chelsea FC |
| 2015-02-12 | €21M | Chelsea FC |
| 2015-07-01 | €23M | Chelsea FC |
| 2016-02-09 | €20M | Chelsea FC |
| 2016-06-01 | €20M | Chelsea FC |
| 2016-08-01 | €20M | Chelsea FC |
| 2017-02-20 | €25M | Chelsea FC |
| 2017-06-28 | €30M | Chelsea FC |
| 2018-01-02 | €35M | Chelsea FC |
| 2018-03-23 | €40M | Chelsea FC |
| 2018-05-28 | €40M | Chelsea FC |
| 2018-12-19 | €40M | Chelsea FC |
| 2019-06-13 | €35M | Chelsea FC |
| 2019-12-10 | €30M | Chelsea FC |
| 2020-04-08 | €24M | Chelsea FC |
| 2020-10-13 | €20M | Chelsea FC |
| 2020-12-17 | €17M | Chelsea FC |
| 2021-03-18 | €17M | Chelsea FC |
| 2021-05-31 | €13M | Chelsea FC |
| 2021-12-23 | €11M | Chelsea FC |
| 2022-06-15 | €9M | Chelsea FC |
| 2022-11-03 | €8M | Chelsea FC |
| 2023-06-20 | €5M | Chelsea FC |
| 2023-12-22 | €4M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2024-03-21 | €3M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2024-06-07 | €2M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2024-12-27 | €1.8M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2025-06-09 | €1.5M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2025-12-12 | €1.2M | Sevilla FC |
| 2026-06-05 | €1M | Sevilla FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.596
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 35% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Azpilicueta appears
- TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- ParejoCMVillarreal CF · LaLiga€1M
- BerchicheLBAthletic Bilbao · LaLiga€1M
- BalliuRBRayo Vallecano · LaLiga€1M
- JuanmiLWGetafe CF · LaLiga€1M
- OtamendiCBSL Benfica · defenders€1M
- KaravaevRBDynamo Kyiv · defenders€1M
- MandiCBLOSC Lille · defenders€1M
- VestergaardCBLeicester City · defenders€1M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).