FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Ibrahim

Diakité

RBGuinea · Cercle Brugge

№ 919173Emerging €1.3M −0.29

Player dossierPro League

IbrahimDiakité

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Cercle Brugge
League
Pro League
Nationality
Guinea
Age
22
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Diakité at €1M. Model A, which never saw Diakité during training, estimates €1.3M: the market value is 25% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.34. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.29A €1.3M▼ −0.98B €2.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
42
Minutes
2,592
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
29/42
Min / app
62
Cards
5Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Diakité…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €1.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Ibrahim Diakité's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 75th, Assists per 90 47th, Minutes, two years 45th, Starts 26th, Minutes, last 365 days 24th, European club minutes 64th75thGoals47thAssists45thMinutes26thStarts24thRecent64thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.07 this player0.03 defender median75th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Mar 2022
Peak
€1.2M
Jun 2025
Model target
€1M
Jun 2026
Valuations
12
5 club changes
Jun 2026€1MCercle BruggeValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1M, Cercle Brugge. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-03-23€150kStade Reims B
2022-05-30€200kStade Reims B
2022-11-02€200kStade Reims
2023-06-09€350kKAS Eupen
2023-10-16€700kStade Reims
2023-12-18€700kStade Reims
2024-03-28€900kFC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy
2024-05-31€800kFC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy
2024-12-11€800kCercle Brugge
2025-06-12€1.2MCercle Brugge
2025-12-10€1.2MCercle Brugge
2026-06-04€1MCercle Brugge

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.293

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 27% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Diakité appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).