FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Renat

Golybin

AMRussia · FC Orenburg

№ 919358Emerging €458k −0.13

Player dossierPremier Liga

RenatGolybin

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Orenburg
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
20
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Golybin at €400k. Model A, which never saw Golybin during training, estimates €458k: the market value is 13% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.14. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €420k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.13A €458k▼ −0.05B €420k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
13
Minutes
526
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
5/13
Min / app
40
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Golybin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €458k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Renat Golybin's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 2nd, Starts 10th, Minutes, last 365 days 13th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals8thAssists2ndMinutes10thStarts13thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% midfielder median30th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Dec 2024
Peak
€400k
May 2026
Model target
€400k
May 2026
Valuations
5
2 club changes
May 2026€400kFC OrenburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €400k, FC Orenburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-12-04€25kNeftekhimik Nizhnekamsk
2025-06-02€50kKamAZ Naberezhnye Chelny
2025-09-18€175kKamAZ Naberezhnye Chelny
2025-12-03€250kKamAZ Naberezhnye Chelny
2026-05-26€400kFC Orenburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.135

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 10% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 12% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Golybin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).