NabilAberdin

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club: FC Sochi
League: Premier Liga
Nationality: Morocco
Age: 23
Height: 192 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 16 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Aberdin at €600k. Model A, which never saw Aberdin during training, estimates €486k: the market value is 23% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.23. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €659k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 23
Minutes: 1,288
Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Started: 14/23
Min / app: 56
Cards: 5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Aberdin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% defender median30th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €50k; Aug 2021
Peak: €800k; Dec 2024
Model target: €600k; Dec 2025
Valuations: 10; 4 club changes

Dec 2025€600kFC SochiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €600k, FC Sochi. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2021-08-12	€50k	CD Paracuellos Antamira
2022-09-26	€50k	CF Rayo Majadahonda
2022-12-29	€50k	CF Rayo Majadahonda
2023-06-30	€50k	CF Rayo Majadahonda
2023-12-20	€50k	Getafe CF B
2024-06-24	€100k	Getafe CF B
2024-10-11	€600k	Getafe CF
2024-12-27	€800k	Getafe CF
2025-06-02	€700k	FC Sochi
2025-12-16	€600k	FC Sochi

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.210

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 19% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 22% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Aberdin appears

TerminalPremier Liga in the Player Explorer
TerminalPremier Liga on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).