FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Pavlos

Pantelidis

RWGreece · Panathinaikos

№ 905189Emerging €2.1M −0.75

Player dossierSuper League

PavlosPantelidis

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Panathinaikos
League
Super League
Nationality
Greece
Age
23
Height
–
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pantelidis at €1M. Model A, which never saw Pantelidis during training, estimates €2.1M: the market value is 53% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.12. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.75A €2.1M▼ −0.13B €1.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
23
Minutes
1,444
Goals
7
Assists
3
Started
17/23
Min / app
63
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pantelidis…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €2.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Pavlos Pantelidis's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 81st, Assists per 90 65th, Minutes, two years 30th, Starts 74th, Minutes, last 365 days 56th, European club minutes 28th81stGoals65thAssists30thMinutes74thStarts56thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.44 this player0.26 attacker median81st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2023
Peak
€1M
Dec 2025
Model target
€1M
Jun 2026
Valuations
8
2 club changes
Jun 2026€1MPanathinaikosValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1M, Panathinaikos. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-09-21€50kIlioupoli
2023-12-28€100kIlioupoli
2024-03-13€150kIlioupoli
2024-05-23€200kIlioupoli
2024-12-27€250kAE Kifisia
2025-05-16€250kAE Kifisia
2025-12-12€1MAE Kifisia
2026-06-04€1MPanathinaikos

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.751

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 67% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 29% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Pantelidis appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).