FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Ibrahim Maza

Ibrahim

Maza

AMAlgeria · Bayer 04 Leverkusen

№ 905011World Class €41M +0.09

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

IbrahimMaza

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Algeria
Age
20
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Maza at €45M. Model A, which never saw Maza during training, estimates €41M: the market value is 10% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.10. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €22.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.09A €41M▲ +0.69B €22.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
44
Minutes
2,944
Goals
5
Assists
7
Started
32/44
Min / app
67
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Maza…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €45M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €45MModel A €41M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Ibrahim Maza's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 73rd, Assists per 90 87th, Minutes, two years 57th, Starts 57th, Minutes, last 365 days 90th, European club minutes 93rd73rdGoals87thAssists57thMinutes57thStarts90thRecent93rdEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

27% this player0% midfielder median93rd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Mar 2023
Peak
€45M
May 2026
Model target
€45M
May 2026
Valuations
11
2 club changes
May 2026€45MBayer 04 LeverkusenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €45M, Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-03-27€250kHertha BSC U19
2023-06-19€600kHertha BSC U19
2023-12-15€600kHertha BSC
2024-03-22€1.5MHertha BSC
2024-06-06€5MHertha BSC
2024-09-25€8MHertha BSC
2024-12-19€12MHertha BSC
2025-06-19€12MHertha BSC
2025-12-19€25MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2026-03-20€40MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2026-05-27€45MBayer 04 Leverkusen

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.093

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 96% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€45MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 97% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€45MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Maza appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).