FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Antonio Nusa

Antonio

Nusa

LWNorway · RB Leipzig

№ 894914World Class €26M +0.21

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

AntonioNusa

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
RB Leipzig
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Norway
Age
21
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Nusa at €32M. Model A, which never saw Nusa during training, estimates €26M: the market value is 23% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.23. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €15.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.21A €26M▲ +0.70B €15.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
75
Minutes
4,762
Goals
10
Assists
12
Started
54/75
Min / app
63
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nusa…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €32M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €32MModel A €26M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Antonio Nusa's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 33rd, Assists per 90 78th, Minutes, two years 89th, Starts 71st, Minutes, last 365 days 82nd, European club minutes 71st33rdGoals78thAssists89thMinutes71stStarts82ndRecent71stEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,762 this player2,242 attacker median89th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Jul 2021
Peak
€32M
Dec 2025
Model target
€32M
May 2026
Valuations
15
2 club changes
May 2026€32MRB LeipzigValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €32M, RB Leipzig. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-07-26€400kStabæk Fotball
2021-10-06€1.5MClub Brugge KV
2022-01-06€1.5MClub Brugge KV
2022-04-12€1.5MClub Brugge KV
2022-05-26€2.5MClub Brugge KV
2022-11-04€4.5MClub Brugge KV
2023-06-09€4MClub Brugge KV
2023-10-23€20MClub Brugge KV
2023-12-19€17MClub Brugge KV
2024-06-04€15MClub Brugge KV
2024-10-09€22MRB Leipzig
2024-12-20€28MRB Leipzig
2025-06-05€28MRB Leipzig
2025-12-19€32MRB Leipzig
2026-05-27€32MRB Leipzig

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.206

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 91% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€32MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 94% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€32MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Nusa appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).