FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Konrad Laimer

Konrad

Laimer

RBAustria · Bayern Munich

№ 223967World Class €50.2M −0.45

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

KonradLaimer

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Bayern Munich
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Austria
Age
29
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Laimer at €32M. Model A, which never saw Laimer during training, estimates €50.2M: the market value is 36% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.57. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €28.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.45A €50.2M▲ +0.11B €28.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
92
Minutes
6,145
Goals
6
Assists
17
Started
70/92
Min / app
67
Cards
27Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Laimer…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €32M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €32MModel A €50.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Konrad Laimer's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 83rd, Assists per 90 98th, Minutes, two years 93rd, Starts 37th, Minutes, last 365 days 96th, European club minutes 96th83rdGoals98thAssists93rdMinutes37thStarts96thRecent96thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.25 this player0.04 defender median98th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Apr 2014
Peak
€32M
Dec 2025
Model target
€32M
May 2026
Valuations
33
4 club changes
May 2026€32MBayern MunichValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €32M, Bayern Munich. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-04-17€50kAKA Red Bull Salzburg U18
2014-06-24€75kAKA Red Bull Salzburg U18
2014-11-22€350kFC Liefering
2015-01-11€500kRed Bull Salzburg
2015-06-17€800kRed Bull Salzburg
2015-10-02€700kRed Bull Salzburg
2015-12-29€700kRed Bull Salzburg
2016-06-01€1MRed Bull Salzburg
2016-10-06€2MRed Bull Salzburg
2016-12-22€3MRed Bull Salzburg
2017-06-02€8MRed Bull Salzburg
2017-12-28€7MRB Leipzig
2018-06-05€8MRB Leipzig
2018-12-18€8MRB Leipzig
2019-03-06€14MRB Leipzig
2019-06-05€17MRB Leipzig
2019-12-17€23MRB Leipzig
2020-03-11€30MRB Leipzig
2020-04-08€24MRB Leipzig
2020-07-08€28MRB Leipzig
2020-09-16€30MRB Leipzig
2021-02-10€26MRB Leipzig
2021-05-27€26MRB Leipzig
2021-12-22€26MRB Leipzig
2022-06-09€28MRB Leipzig
2022-11-09€28MRB Leipzig
2023-06-22€28MRB Leipzig
2023-12-14€28MBayern Munich
2024-05-29€30MBayern Munich
2024-12-20€25MBayern Munich
2025-06-05€25MBayern Munich
2025-12-19€32MBayern Munich
2026-05-27€32MBayern Munich

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.450

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 91% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€32MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 96% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€32MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Laimer appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).