FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Nathan De Cat

Nathan De

Cat

CMBelgium · RSC Anderlecht

№ 1105541Elite €17.1M +0.46

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPro League

Nathan DeCat

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
RSC Anderlecht
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
17
Height
192 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Cat at €27M. Model A, which never saw Cat during training, estimates €17.1M: the market value is 58% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.58. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €30.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.46A €17.1M▼ −0.12B €30.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
42
Minutes
3,034
Goals
2
Assists
4
Started
37/42
Min / app
72
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Cat…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €27M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €27MModel A €17.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Nathan De Cat's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 38th, Assists per 90 60th, Minutes, two years 58th, Starts 84th, Minutes, last 365 days 92nd, European club minutes 71st38thGoals60thAssists58thMinutes84thStarts92ndRecent71stEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,026 this player1,541 midfielder median92nd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Oct 2024
Peak
€27M
Jun 2026
Model target
€27M
Jun 2026
Valuations
7
1 club change
Jun 2026€27MRSC AnderlechtValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €27M, RSC Anderlecht. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-10-02€1MRSCA Futures
2024-12-11€1MRSCA Futures
2025-06-12€2.5MRSCA Futures
2025-10-01€7MRSC Anderlecht
2025-12-10€17MRSC Anderlecht
2026-03-13€25MRSC Anderlecht
2026-06-04€27MRSC Anderlecht

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.457

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

5th highest observed value among 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€27MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 93% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€27MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Cat appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).