Michel
CBBrazil · Moreirense FC
Player dossierLiga Portugal
Michel
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Moreirense FC
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 188 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values Michel at €600k. Model A, which never saw Michel during training, estimates €374k: the market value is 60% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.60. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €548k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 9
- Minutes
- 550
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 6/9
- Min / app
- 61
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Michel…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
0% this player0% defender median30th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €700k
- May 2023
- Peak
- €1M
- Dec 2023
- Model target
- €600k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 8
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €600k, Moreirense FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-12 | €700k | SE Palmeiras São Paulo U20 |
| 2023-12-11 | €1M | SE Palmeiras São Paulo U20 |
| 2024-03-28 | €1M | Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras |
| 2024-06-17 | €1M | Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras |
| 2024-12-09 | €1M | Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras |
| 2025-05-30 | €1M | Moreirense FC |
| 2025-12-18 | €800k | Moreirense FC |
| 2026-05-28 | €600k | Moreirense FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.473
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 27% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 22% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Michel appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BuatuCBGil Vicente FC · Liga Portugal€600k
- FerreiraGKMoreirense FC · Liga Portugal€600k
- BermejoRWGil Vicente FC · Liga Portugal€600k
- CostaLBGD Estoril Praia · Liga Portugal€600k
- SilvestriRBBologna FC 1909 · defenders€600k
- JungCBSC Freiburg · defenders€600k
- TrimmelRB1.FC Union Berlin · defenders€600k
- BellCB1.FSV Mainz 05 · defenders€600k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).