FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Sergio

Bermejo

RWSpain · Gil Vicente FC

№ 372051Emerging €594k +0.01

Player dossierLiga Portugal

SergioBermejo

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Gil Vicente FC
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Spain
Age
28
Height
170 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bermejo at €600k. Model A, which never saw Bermejo during training, estimates €594k: the market value is 1% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.01. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €661k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.01A €594k▼ −0.10B €661k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
27
Minutes
961
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
11/27
Min / app
36
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bermejo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €594k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Sergio Bermejo's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 13th, Assists per 90 6th, Minutes, two years 18th, Starts 22nd, Minutes, last 365 days 10th, European club minutes 28th13thGoals6thAssists18thMinutes22ndStarts10thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% attacker median28th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Nov 2018
Peak
€900k
Jun 2023
Model target
€600k
May 2026
Valuations
19
5 club changes
May 2026€600kGil Vicente FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €600k, Gil Vicente FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-11-23€300kCDA Navalcarnero
2019-02-19€300kCelta Vigo B
2019-06-29€200kCelta Vigo B
2019-09-10€200kCelta Vigo B
2020-02-11€200kCelta Vigo B
2020-10-08€200kReal Zaragoza
2020-11-23€400kReal Zaragoza
2021-01-08€400kReal Zaragoza
2021-06-24€700kReal Zaragoza
2021-12-27€700kReal Zaragoza
2022-06-29€700kReal Zaragoza
2022-12-29€700kReal Zaragoza
2023-06-14€900kReal Zaragoza
2023-12-20€900kReal Zaragoza
2024-06-24€900kElche CF
2024-12-13€900kReal Zaragoza
2025-05-30€900kGil Vicente FC
2025-12-18€800kGil Vicente FC
2026-05-28€600kGil Vicente FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.010

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 27% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 19% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bermejo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).