Lucas
Bergvall
CMSweden · Tottenham Hotspur
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
LucasBergvall
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Tottenham Hotspur
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- Sweden
- Age
- 20
- Height
- 187 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Premier LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Bergvall at €35M. Model A, which never saw Bergvall during training, estimates €32.9M: the market value is 6% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.06. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €29.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 74
- Minutes
- 3,603
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 9
- Started
- 39/74
- Min / app
- 49
- Cards
- 9Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bergvall…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €35M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
33% this player0% midfielder median97th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €800k
- Dec 2022
- Peak
- €40M
- Oct 2025
- Model target
- €35M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 12
- 2 club changes
Jun 2026: €35M, Tottenham Hotspur. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-28 | €800k | IF Brommapojkarna |
| 2023-06-27 | €2M | Djurgårdens IF |
| 2023-09-13 | €3.5M | Djurgårdens IF |
| 2023-12-08 | €5M | Djurgårdens IF |
| 2024-06-13 | €10M | Djurgårdens IF |
| 2024-10-01 | €12M | Tottenham Hotspur |
| 2024-12-16 | €12M | Tottenham Hotspur |
| 2025-03-18 | €25M | Tottenham Hotspur |
| 2025-05-30 | €38M | Tottenham Hotspur |
| 2025-10-17 | €40M | Tottenham Hotspur |
| 2025-12-09 | €40M | Tottenham Hotspur |
| 2026-06-03 | €35M | Tottenham Hotspur |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.063
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 79% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 95% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Bergvall appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- FernandesAMManchester United · Premier League€35M
- BotmanCBNewcastle United · Premier League€35M
- KadıoğluLBBrighton & Hove Albion · Premier League€35M
- JonesCMLiverpool FC · Premier League€35M
- KimmichDMBayern Munich · midfielders€35M
- JongCMFC Barcelona · midfielders€35M
- Dewsbury-HallCMEverton FC · midfielders€35M
- RamseyCMNewcastle United · midfielders€35M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).