FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Jacob Ramsey

Jacob

Ramsey

CMEngland · Newcastle United

№ 503749World Class €26.8M +0.27

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

JacobRamsey

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Newcastle United
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
25
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ramsey at €35M. Model A, which never saw Ramsey during training, estimates €26.8M: the market value is 30% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.30. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €32M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.27A €26.8M▲ +0.09B €32M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
87
Minutes
4,578
Goals
6
Assists
10
Started
50/87
Min / app
53
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ramsey…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €35M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €35MModel A €26.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Jacob Ramsey's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 62nd, Assists per 90 83rd, Minutes, two years 82nd, Starts 31st, Minutes, last 365 days 74th, European club minutes 81st62ndGoals83rdAssists82ndMinutes31stStarts74thRecent81stEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.20 this player0.09 midfielder median83rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1.5M
Dec 2020
Peak
€42M
Jun 2023
Model target
€35M
Jun 2026
Valuations
18
1 club change
Jun 2026€35MNewcastle UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €35M, Newcastle United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-12-17€1.5MAston Villa
2021-03-18€3.5MAston Villa
2021-06-08€5MAston Villa
2021-10-05€8MAston Villa
2021-12-23€15MAston Villa
2022-03-29€22MAston Villa
2022-06-15€25MAston Villa
2022-11-03€28MAston Villa
2023-03-16€32MAston Villa
2023-06-20€42MAston Villa
2023-12-19€42MAston Villa
2024-05-27€35MAston Villa
2024-10-01€32MAston Villa
2024-12-16€32MAston Villa
2025-05-30€32MAston Villa
2025-10-17€40MNewcastle United
2025-12-09€35MNewcastle United
2026-06-03€35MNewcastle United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.265

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 79% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€35MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 95% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€35MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ramsey appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).