Stefan
Ortega
GKGermany · Nottingham Forest
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
StefanOrtega
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Nottingham Forest
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 185 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Premier LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Ortega at €4M. Model A, which never saw Ortega during training, estimates €1.7M: the market value is 129% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.29. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 30
- Minutes
- 2,659
- Started
- 29/30
- Min / app
- 89
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ortega…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
35% this player0% goalkeeper median97th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Jul 2010
- Peak
- €9M
- Jun 2023
- Model target
- €4M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 41
- 5 club changes
Jun 2026: €4M, Nottingham Forest. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-07-07 | €50k | Arminia Bielefeld U19 |
| 2011-01-12 | €50k | Arminia Bielefeld U19 |
| 2011-04-11 | €75k | Arminia Bielefeld U19 |
| 2012-01-11 | €200k | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2012-06-09 | €175k | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2012-12-30 | €150k | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2013-06-28 | €150k | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2013-10-14 | €250k | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2014-01-20 | €250k | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2014-06-30 | €400k | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2015-01-13 | €700k | TSV 1860 Munich |
| 2015-07-01 | €500k | TSV 1860 Munich |
| 2016-02-11 | €400k | TSV 1860 Munich |
| 2016-07-22 | €400k | TSV 1860 Munich |
| 2017-01-23 | €400k | TSV 1860 Munich |
| 2017-03-27 | €500k | TSV 1860 Munich |
| 2017-06-27 | €450k | TSV 1860 Munich |
| 2017-10-17 | €550k | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2018-01-22 | €700k | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2018-03-21 | €800k | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2018-06-19 | €900k | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2019-01-08 | €900k | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2019-06-12 | €900k | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2019-09-25 | €1M | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2019-12-13 | €1M | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2020-04-08 | €800k | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2020-07-15 | €1.5M | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2021-02-10 | €3M | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2021-03-31 | €4.5M | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2021-06-09 | €6M | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2021-12-22 | €6M | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2022-06-09 | €6M | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2022-11-03 | €6M | Manchester City |
| 2023-06-20 | €9M | Manchester City |
| 2023-12-19 | €9M | Manchester City |
| 2024-05-27 | €9M | Manchester City |
| 2024-12-16 | €9M | Manchester City |
| 2025-05-30 | €8M | Manchester City |
| 2025-10-17 | €6M | Manchester City |
| 2025-12-09 | €5M | Manchester City |
| 2026-06-03 | €4M | Nottingham Forest |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.830
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 16% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 75% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Ortega appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- AreolaGKWest Ham United · Premier League€4M
- WilsonCFWest Ham United · Premier League€4M
- BarkleyCMAston Villa · Premier League€4M
- TraoréRWSunderland AFC · Premier League€4M
- NeuerGKBayern Munich · goalkeepers€4M
- ZettererGKEintracht Frankfurt · goalkeepers€4M
- PeñaGKElche CF · goalkeepers€4M
- BenítezGKCrystal Palace · goalkeepers€4M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).