João
Costa
CFPortugal · CD Santa Clara
Player dossierLiga Portugal
JoãoCosta
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- CD Santa Clara
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 185 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Costa at €400k. Model A, which never saw Costa during training, estimates €703k: the market value is 43% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.76. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 35
- Minutes
- 1,034
- Goals
- 3
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 11/35
- Min / app
- 30
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Costa…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
18% this player0% attacker median81st percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Jun 2021
- Peak
- €500k
- May 2025
- Model target
- €400k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 6
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €400k, CD Santa Clara. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-06-29 | €50k | CF Estrela Amadora B |
| 2024-06-20 | €350k | FC Alverca |
| 2024-12-19 | €350k | CD Santa Clara |
| 2025-05-30 | €500k | CD Santa Clara |
| 2025-12-18 | €400k | CD Santa Clara |
| 2026-05-28 | €400k | CD Santa Clara |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.564
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 12% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 11% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Costa appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BrabecCBRio Ave FC · Liga Portugal€400k
- OliveiraCBSC Braga · Liga Portugal€400k
- AbascalCBVitória Guimarães SC · Liga Portugal€400k
- GualCFRio Ave FC · Liga Portugal€400k
- SansoneLWUS Lecce · attackers€400k
- LapadulaCFSpezia Calcio · attackers€400k
- RosaLWPanetolikos · attackers€400k
- IljinCFFC Sochi · attackers€400k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).