Kevin
Vogt
CBGermany · VfL Bochum
Player dossierBundesliga
KevinVogt
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- VfL Bochum
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 34
- Height
- 194 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 16 Dec 2025
Reading the valuation
The market values Vogt at €400k. Model A, which never saw Vogt during training, estimates €357k: the market value is 12% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.12. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €312k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 37
- Minutes
- 2,952
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 35/37
- Min / app
- 80
- Cards
- 11Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vogt…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
95% this player83% defender median83rd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Mar 2009
- Peak
- €17M
- Oct 2018
- Model target
- €400k
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 37
- 8 club changes
Dec 2025: €400k, VfL Bochum. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2009-03-15 | €100k | VfL Bochum U19 |
| 2011-01-12 | €250k | VfL Bochum |
| 2011-02-03 | €500k | VfL Bochum |
| 2011-06-04 | €1M | VfL Bochum |
| 2012-01-16 | €1M | VfL Bochum |
| 2012-06-24 | €1M | VfL Bochum |
| 2013-01-13 | €1M | FC Augsburg |
| 2013-06-30 | €1.3M | FC Augsburg |
| 2014-02-12 | €1.8M | FC Augsburg |
| 2015-02-04 | €3.5M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2015-07-01 | €4M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2016-02-15 | €4M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2016-07-22 | €3M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2017-02-07 | €4.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2017-06-19 | €6M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2017-12-28 | €8M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2018-06-05 | €12M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2018-10-22 | €17M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2018-12-18 | €17M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2019-03-06 | €12M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2019-06-05 | €12M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2019-12-17 | €10M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2020-04-08 | €8M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2020-07-08 | €7M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2020-09-16 | €6M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2021-02-10 | €6M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2021-06-09 | €4M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2021-12-22 | €4M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2022-06-09 | €3.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2022-11-09 | €3.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2023-06-22 | €2.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2023-12-14 | €2.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2024-05-29 | €2M | 1.FC Union Berlin |
| 2024-12-20 | €2M | 1.FC Union Berlin |
| 2025-06-05 | €1M | 1.FC Union Berlin |
| 2025-10-09 | €700k | VfL Bochum |
| 2025-12-16 | €400k | VfL Bochum |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.114
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 1% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 14% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Vogt appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- JohanssonCBHolstein Kiel · Bundesliga€450k
- BatzGK1.FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga€350k
- HöflerDMSC Freiburg · Bundesliga€500k
- WeinerGKHolstein Kiel · Bundesliga€500k
- YoungRBIpswich Town · defenders€400k
- LovrenCBPAOK Thessaloniki · defenders€400k
- SavicCBTrabzonspor · defenders€400k
- BrabecCBRio Ave FC · defenders€400k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).