Marin
Ljubicic
CFCroatia · 1.FC Union Berlin
Player dossierBundesliga
MarinLjubicic
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- 1.FC Union Berlin
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Croatia
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 183 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 19 Dec 2025
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Ljubicic at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Ljubicic during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 71% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.71. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €985k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 15
- Minutes
- 451
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 3/15
- Min / app
- 30
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ljubicic…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
40% this player0% attacker median98th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Dec 2020
- Peak
- €8M
- May 2024
- Model target
- €2.5M
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 15
- 3 club changes
Dec 2025: €2.5M, 1.FC Union Berlin. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-28 | €50k | HNK Hajduk Split U19 |
| 2021-06-10 | €350k | HNK Hajduk Split |
| 2021-12-30 | €1.5M | HNK Hajduk Split |
| 2022-06-06 | €1.5M | HNK Hajduk Split |
| 2022-09-20 | €2.5M | LASK |
| 2022-11-10 | €3.5M | LASK |
| 2023-06-12 | €3.5M | LASK |
| 2023-09-11 | €3M | LASK |
| 2023-12-11 | €2.5M | LASK |
| 2024-05-21 | €8M | LASK |
| 2024-10-10 | €6M | LASK |
| 2024-12-17 | €4M | LASK |
| 2025-06-05 | €4M | 1.FC Union Berlin |
| 2025-10-14 | €3M | 1.FC Union Berlin |
| 2025-12-19 | €2.5M | 1.FC Union Berlin |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.534
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 25% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 48% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Ljubicic appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- KramaricSSTSG 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga€2.5M
- BaumannGKTSG 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga€2.5M
- EriksenAMVfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga€2.5M
- MainkaCB1.FC Heidenheim 1846 · Bundesliga€2.5M
- AubameyangCFOlympique Marseille · attackers€2.5M
- ZapataCFTorino FC · attackers€2.5M
- PléaCFPSV Eindhoven · attackers€2.5M
- MorenoCFVillarreal CF · attackers€2.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).