Kasper
Davidsen
DMDenmark · Holstein Kiel
Player dossierBundesliga
KasperDavidsen
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Holstein Kiel
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Denmark
- Age
- 20
- Height
- 193 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 16 Dec 2025
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Davidsen at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Davidsen during training, estimates €2.1M: the market value is 20% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €752k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 21
- Minutes
- 1,366
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 18/21
- Min / app
- 65
- Cards
- 5Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Davidsen…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
86% this player69% midfielder median80th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Jul 2024
- Peak
- €2.5M
- Dec 2025
- Model target
- €2.5M
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 5
- 1 club change
Dec 2025: €2.5M, Holstein Kiel. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-02 | €25k | Aalborg BK |
| 2024-12-09 | €650k | Aalborg BK |
| 2025-06-16 | €1.3M | Aalborg BK |
| 2025-10-09 | €1.6M | Holstein Kiel |
| 2025-12-16 | €2.5M | Holstein Kiel |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.185
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 25% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 51% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Davidsen appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- KramaricSSTSG 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga€2.5M
- BaumannGKTSG 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga€2.5M
- EriksenAMVfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga€2.5M
- MainkaCB1.FC Heidenheim 1846 · Bundesliga€2.5M
- GroßCMBrighton & Hove Albion · midfielders€2.5M
- BuyalskyiAMDynamo Kyiv · midfielders€2.5M
- TouréDMLe Havre AC · midfielders€2.5M
- LazaroRMTorino FC · midfielders€2.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).