Álex
Padilla
GKMexico · Athletic Bilbao
Player dossierLaLiga
ÁlexPadilla
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Athletic Bilbao
- League
- LaLiga
- Nationality
- Mexico
- Age
- 22
- Height
- 190 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 5 Jun 2026
LaLigaReading the valuation
The market values Padilla at €3M. Model A, which never saw Padilla during training, estimates €1.9M: the market value is 56% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.56. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 11
- Minutes
- 920
- Started
- 9/11
- Min / app
- 84
- Cards
- 0Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Padilla…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
0% this player0% goalkeeper median32nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Sept 2022
- Peak
- €3M
- Mar 2025
- Model target
- €3M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 12
- 3 club changes
Jun 2026: €3M, Athletic Bilbao. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-26 | €100k | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2022-12-29 | €150k | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2023-06-30 | €150k | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2023-12-20 | €150k | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2024-03-26 | €200k | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2024-06-24 | €200k | Bilbao Athletic |
| 2024-10-11 | €2M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2024-12-27 | €2M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2025-03-31 | €3M | UNAM Pumas |
| 2025-05-26 | €3M | UNAM Pumas |
| 2025-12-12 | €3M | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2026-06-05 | €3M | Athletic Bilbao |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.444
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 68% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Padilla appears
- TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- AlabaCBReal Madrid · LaLiga€3M
- StegenGKGirona FC · LaLiga€3M
- VlachodimosGKSevilla FC · LaLiga€3M
- DarderCMRCD Mallorca · LaLiga€3M
- SchwäbeGK1.FC Köln · goalkeepers€3M
- ProvedelGKSS Lazio · goalkeepers€3M
- StrakoshaGKAEK Athens · goalkeepers€3M
- MussoGKAtlético de Madrid · goalkeepers€3M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).