FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Max

Weiß

GKGermany · Burnley FC

№ 829299Established €5.5M −0.32

Player dossierPremier League

MaxWeiß

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Burnley FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Germany
Age
21
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Weiß at €4M. Model A, which never saw Weiß during training, estimates €5.5M: the market value is 28% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.38. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €418k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.32A €5.5M▲ +2.26B €418k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
7
Minutes
630
Started
7/7
Min / app
90
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Weiß…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €5.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Max Weiß's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 8th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 26th, European club minutes 32nd8thMinutes62ndStarts26thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jul 2022
Peak
€4M
Jun 2025
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
12
1 club change
Jun 2026€4MBurnley FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, Burnley FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-07-01€200kKarlsruher SC
2022-11-30€200kKarlsruher SC
2023-06-28€200kKarlsruher SC
2023-12-15€200kKarlsruher SC
2024-03-22€400kKarlsruher SC
2024-06-06€400kKarlsruher SC
2024-09-25€1.5MKarlsruher SC
2024-12-19€2MKarlsruher SC
2025-03-26€3MKarlsruher SC
2025-06-19€4MKarlsruher SC
2025-12-09€4MBurnley FC
2026-06-03€4MBurnley FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.323

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 16% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 75% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Weiß appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).