FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Pedro

Santos

RWPortugal · FC Famalicão

№ 825835Emerging €1.1M −0.58

Player dossierLiga Portugal

PedroSantos

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
FC Famalicão
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Portugal
Age
23
Height
178 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Santos at €600k. Model A, which never saw Santos during training, estimates €1.1M: the market value is 44% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.79. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.58A €1.1M▼ −0.69B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
44
Minutes
1,315
Goals
2
Assists
3
Started
12/44
Min / app
30
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Santos…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €1.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Pedro Santos's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 20th, Assists per 90 72nd, Minutes, two years 27th, Starts 8th, Minutes, last 365 days 24th, European club minutes 28th20thGoals72ndAssists27thMinutes8thStarts24thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.21 this player0.15 attacker median72nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€450k
Jun 2022
Peak
€1.7M
Jun 2024
Model target
€600k
May 2026
Valuations
10
3 club changes
May 2026€600kFC FamalicãoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €600k, FC Famalicão. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-06-27€450kSL Benfica U23
2022-12-28€300kSL Benfica B
2023-06-28€750kSL Benfica B
2023-12-14€850kSL Benfica B
2024-06-20€1.7MSL Benfica B
2024-12-19€1.5MMoreirense FC
2025-03-31€1.2MMoreirense FC
2025-05-30€800kMoreirense FC
2025-12-18€600kFC Famalicão
2026-05-28€600kFC Famalicão

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.580

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 27% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 19% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Santos appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).