Matheus
Dias
DMBrazil · CD Nacional
Player dossierLiga Portugal
MatheusDias
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- CD Nacional
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 24
- Height
- 187 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values Dias at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Dias during training, estimates €2.5M: the market value is 40% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.65. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 58
- Minutes
- 4,284
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 51/58
- Min / app
- 74
- Cards
- 14Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Dias…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
88% this player69% midfielder median84th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Aug 2022
- Peak
- €2M
- Dec 2023
- Model target
- €1.5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 11
- 1 club change
May 2026: €1.5M, CD Nacional. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-08-19 | €100k | Sport Club Internacional |
| 2022-11-14 | €100k | Sport Club Internacional |
| 2023-04-07 | €500k | Sport Club Internacional |
| 2023-07-25 | €500k | Sport Club Internacional |
| 2023-12-11 | €2M | Sport Club Internacional |
| 2024-03-28 | €2M | Sport Club Internacional |
| 2024-06-17 | €2M | Sport Club Internacional |
| 2024-12-19 | €1.8M | CD Nacional |
| 2025-05-30 | €1.5M | CD Nacional |
| 2025-12-18 | €1.5M | CD Nacional |
| 2026-05-28 | €1.5M | CD Nacional |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.503
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 53% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 39% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Dias appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- JordanCFCD Tondela · Liga Portugal€1.5M
- SchettineCFMoreirense FC · Liga Portugal€1.5M
- MoreiraCMCF Estrela Amadora · Liga Portugal€1.5M
- PanzoCBRio Ave FC · Liga Portugal€1.5M
- HofmannAMBayer 04 Leverkusen · midfielders€1.5M
- AyhanDMGalatasaray · midfielders€1.5M
- PraetCMRoyal Antwerp FC · midfielders€1.5M
- NielsenCMStandard Liège · midfielders€1.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).