FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Giannis

Apostolakis

CMGreece · OFI Crete

№ 815104Emerging €982k +0.20

Player dossierSuper League

GiannisApostolakis

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
OFI Crete
League
Super League
Nationality
Greece
Age
21
Height
179 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Apostolakis at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Apostolakis during training, estimates €982k: the market value is 22% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.20A €982k▼ −0.50B €2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
56
Minutes
2,917
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
30/56
Min / app
52
Cards
12Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Apostolakis…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €982k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Giannis Apostolakis's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 25th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 56th, Starts 26th, Minutes, last 365 days 62nd, European club minutes 30th25thGoals8thAssists56thMinutes26thStarts62ndRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

1,915 this player1,541 midfielder median62nd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Nov 2022
Peak
€1.2M
Jun 2026
Model target
€1.2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
12
0 club changes
Jun 2026€1.2MOFI CreteValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.2M, OFI Crete. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-11-07€50kOFI Crete
2023-05-22€50kOFI Crete
2023-09-21€100kOFI Crete
2023-12-20€150kOFI Crete
2024-03-06€200kOFI Crete
2024-05-30€250kOFI Crete
2024-09-26€350kOFI Crete
2024-12-18€400kOFI Crete
2025-05-23€500kOFI Crete
2025-12-12€600kOFI Crete
2026-03-06€800kOFI Crete
2026-06-04€1.2MOFI Crete

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.200

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 69% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Apostolakis appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).