FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Samuel

Moutoussamy

CMDR Congo · Atromitos Athens

№ 353403Emerging €814k +0.39

Player dossierSuper League

SamuelMoutoussamy

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Atromitos Athens
League
Super League
Nationality
DR Congo
Age
29
Height
176 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Moutoussamy at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Moutoussamy during training, estimates €814k: the market value is 47% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.47. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.39A €814k▲ +0.11B €1.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
54
Minutes
4,309
Goals
3
Assists
3
Started
49/54
Min / app
80
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Moutoussamy…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €814k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Samuel Moutoussamy's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 39th, Assists per 90 35th, Minutes, two years 78th, Starts 87th, Minutes, last 365 days 61st, European club minutes 30th39thGoals35thAssists78thMinutes87thStarts61stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

91% this player69% midfielder median87th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Oct 2017
Peak
€5M
Jun 2019
Model target
€1.2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
28
4 club changes
Jun 2026€1.2MAtromitos AthensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.2M, Atromitos Athens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-10-12€200kFC Nantes
2018-01-24€200kFC Nantes
2018-06-04€500kFC Nantes
2018-09-06€1.3MFC Nantes
2018-12-17€2MFC Nantes
2019-06-03€5MFC Nantes
2019-12-19€4MFC Nantes
2020-04-08€3.2MFC Nantes
2020-08-03€2.2MFC Nantes
2020-10-14€2.2MFortuna Sittard
2021-01-06€1.5MFortuna Sittard
2021-03-09€900kFortuna Sittard
2021-05-19€750kFortuna Sittard
2021-12-16€1MFC Nantes
2022-03-23€1.5MFC Nantes
2022-05-30€3MFC Nantes
2022-09-19€4MFC Nantes
2022-11-02€3.5MFC Nantes
2023-03-27€4.5MFC Nantes
2023-06-27€5MFC Nantes
2023-12-18€4MFC Nantes
2024-06-03€3MFC Nantes
2024-10-04€2.5MSivasspor
2024-12-23€2.2MSivasspor
2025-03-20€2MSivasspor
2025-06-18€1.6MSivasspor
2025-12-12€1.2MAtromitos Athens
2026-06-04€1.2MAtromitos Athens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.388

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 69% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Moutoussamy appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).