Axel
Witsel
DMBelgium · Girona FC
Player dossierLaLiga
AxelWitsel
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Girona FC
- League
- LaLiga
- Nationality
- Belgium
- Age
- 37
- Height
- 186 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 5 Jun 2026
LaLigaReading the valuation
The market values Witsel at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Witsel during training, estimates €720k: the market value is 67% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.67. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €694k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 54
- Minutes
- 3,967
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 45/54
- Min / app
- 73
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Witsel…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Minutes, last 365 days
Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.
2,578 this player1,541 midfielder median82nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €400k
- Sept 2006
- Peak
- €40M
- Dec 2018
- Model target
- €1.2M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 53
- 7 club changes
Jun 2026: €1.2M, Girona FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2006-09-24 | €400k | Standard Liège |
| 2007-08-07 | €1.5M | Standard Liège |
| 2008-03-31 | €2.5M | Standard Liège |
| 2008-07-15 | €3M | Standard Liège |
| 2008-10-22 | €4M | Standard Liège |
| 2008-11-25 | €8M | Standard Liège |
| 2009-05-22 | €8.5M | Standard Liège |
| 2009-09-04 | €7.5M | Standard Liège |
| 2010-07-28 | €8.5M | Standard Liège |
| 2010-12-28 | €8.5M | Standard Liège |
| 2011-05-24 | €10M | Standard Liège |
| 2011-09-21 | €11M | SL Benfica |
| 2012-02-02 | €14M | SL Benfica |
| 2012-07-07 | €20M | SL Benfica |
| 2012-09-04 | €25M | Zenit St. Petersburg |
| 2012-09-09 | €30M | Zenit St. Petersburg |
| 2013-01-13 | €30M | Zenit St. Petersburg |
| 2013-06-19 | €32M | Zenit St. Petersburg |
| 2014-03-03 | €35M | Zenit St. Petersburg |
| 2014-07-31 | €35M | Zenit St. Petersburg |
| 2015-02-23 | €28M | Zenit St. Petersburg |
| 2015-06-18 | €28M | Zenit St. Petersburg |
| 2016-01-06 | €28M | Zenit St. Petersburg |
| 2016-06-01 | €23M | Zenit St. Petersburg |
| 2016-12-27 | €20M | Zenit St. Petersburg |
| 2017-03-05 | €15M | Tianjin Quanjian |
| 2017-06-19 | €15M | Tianjin Quanjian |
| 2017-12-01 | €17M | Tianjin Quanjian |
| 2018-06-05 | €18M | Tianjin Quanjian |
| 2018-07-16 | €20M | Tianjin Tianhai (-2019) |
| 2018-08-22 | €25M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2018-10-22 | €30M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2018-12-18 | €40M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2019-06-05 | €32M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2019-12-17 | €27M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2020-04-08 | €21.5M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2020-09-16 | €17M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2021-02-10 | €12M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2021-05-26 | €9M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2021-12-22 | €6M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2022-03-24 | €4M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2022-06-09 | €4M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2022-09-23 | €5M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2022-11-07 | €5M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2023-06-13 | €5M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2023-12-22 | €5M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2024-03-21 | €4M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2024-06-07 | €3.5M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2024-12-27 | €2.5M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2025-06-09 | €2M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2025-10-02 | €1.5M | Girona FC |
| 2025-12-12 | €1.4M | Girona FC |
| 2026-06-05 | €1.2M | Girona FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.511
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 35% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Witsel appears
- TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BlindCBGirona FC · LaLiga€1.2M
- SánchezSSSevilla FC · LaLiga€1.2M
- PortuRWGirona FC · LaLiga€1.2M
- AlonsoCBCelta de Vigo · LaLiga€1.2M
- HendersonDMBrentford FC · midfielders€1.2M
- CabellaAMFC Nantes · midfielders€1.2M
- OzdoevDMPAOK Thessaloniki · midfielders€1.2M
- YokuşluDMTrabzonspor · midfielders€1.2M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).