FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Isa

Sakamoto

AMJapan · KVC Westerlo

№ 814491Established €6.8M −0.52

Player dossierPro League

IsaSakamoto

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
KVC Westerlo
League
Pro League
Nationality
Japan
Age
22
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sakamoto at €4M. Model A, which never saw Sakamoto during training, estimates €6.8M: the market value is 41% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.69. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.52A €6.8M▼ −0.03B €4.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
47
Minutes
3,695
Goals
9
Assists
6
Started
46/47
Min / app
79
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sakamoto…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €6.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Isa Sakamoto's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 85th, Assists per 90 70th, Minutes, two years 69th, Starts 98th, Minutes, last 365 days 92nd, European club minutes 30th85thGoals70thAssists69thMinutes98thStarts92ndRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

98% this player69% midfielder median98th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2020
Peak
€4M
Jun 2026
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
14
4 club changes
Jun 2026€4MKVC WesterloValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, KVC Westerlo. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-01-25€50kUnknown
2021-06-29€50kUnknown
2022-01-14€50kUnknown
2022-06-28€100kGamba Osaka
2023-01-06€150kGamba Osaka
2023-06-27€150kFagiano Okayama
2024-02-22€300kGamba Osaka
2024-06-12€600kGamba Osaka
2024-12-10€700kGamba Osaka
2025-03-26€1.3MKVC Westerlo
2025-06-12€2.5MKVC Westerlo
2025-10-01€3.5MKVC Westerlo
2025-12-10€3.5MKVC Westerlo
2026-06-04€4MKVC Westerlo

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.524

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 78% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 61% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Sakamoto appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).