FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Bradley

Locko

LBFrance · Stade Brestois 29

№ 805908Established €3M +0.68

Player dossierLigue 1

BradleyLocko

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Stade Brestois 29
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
France
Age
24
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Locko at €6M. Model A, which never saw Locko during training, estimates €3M: the market value is 98% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.98. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.68A €3M▲ +1.39B €1.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
23
Minutes
1,382
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
15/23
Min / app
60
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Locko…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Bradley Locko's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 84th, Minutes, two years 20th, Starts 21st, Minutes, last 365 days 37th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals84thAssists20thMinutes21stStarts37thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.13 this player0.04 defender median84th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Oct 2021
Peak
€12M
Jun 2024
Model target
€6M
Jun 2026
Valuations
17
1 club change
Jun 2026€6MStade Brestois 29Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €6M, Stade Brestois 29. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-10-15€300kStade Reims
2021-12-16€600kStade Reims
2022-03-23€1.5MStade Reims
2022-05-30€2MStade Reims
2022-09-19€2.5MStade Reims
2022-11-02€3.5MStade Reims
2023-03-27€3MStade Brestois 29
2023-06-27€2.5MStade Brestois 29
2023-10-16€5MStade Brestois 29
2023-12-18€7MStade Brestois 29
2024-03-19€10MStade Brestois 29
2024-06-03€12MStade Brestois 29
2024-12-10€10MStade Brestois 29
2025-03-24€9MStade Brestois 29
2025-06-03€9MStade Brestois 29
2025-12-15€7MStade Brestois 29
2026-06-01€6MStade Brestois 29

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.682

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 50% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 73% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Locko appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).