Elies
Mahmoud
RWFrance · Randers FC
Player dossierSuperliga
EliesMahmoud
RWRight WingerAttack
- Club
- Randers FC
- League
- Superliga
- Nationality
- France
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 171 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 25 May 2026
SuperligaReading the valuation
The market values Mahmoud at €750k. Model A, which never saw Mahmoud during training, estimates €783k: the market value is 4% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €807k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 28
- Minutes
- 1,797
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 22/28
- Min / app
- 64
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mahmoud…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €750k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
79% this player59% attacker median81st percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €400k
- Nov 2020
- Peak
- €800k
- Jun 2023
- Model target
- €750k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 13
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €750k, Randers FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-11-11 | €400k | Le Havre AC |
| 2021-06-25 | €500k | Le Havre AC |
| 2021-12-27 | €400k | Le Havre AC |
| 2022-06-02 | €300k | Le Havre AC |
| 2022-10-28 | €700k | Le Havre AC |
| 2023-06-16 | €800k | Le Havre AC |
| 2023-10-19 | €800k | FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy |
| 2023-12-21 | €800k | FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy |
| 2024-05-31 | €800k | FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy |
| 2024-12-23 | €500k | FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy |
| 2025-06-16 | €450k | Randers FC |
| 2025-12-15 | €650k | Randers FC |
| 2026-05-25 | €750k | Randers FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.043
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Superliga256 players · median €800k
Valued above 43% of the 256 Superliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 24% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Mahmoud appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- MarcussenLWFC Fredericia · Superliga€750k
- BruusRBAC Horsens · Superliga€750k
- GrotCFOdense Boldklub · Superliga€750k
- GundelundRBVejle Boldklub · Superliga€750k
- HofmannCFVfL Bochum · attackers€750k
- HanssonLWExcelsior Rotterdam · attackers€750k
- WlodarczykCFExcelsior Rotterdam · attackers€750k
- JassonRWAalborg BK · attackers€750k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).