Aleksandar
Pavlovic
DMGermany · Bayern Munich
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierBundesliga
AleksandarPavlovic
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Bayern Munich
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 22
- Height
- 188 cm
- Foot
- Both
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Pavlovic at €90M. Model A, which never saw Pavlovic during training, estimates €56.4M: the market value is 60% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.60. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €34.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 76
- Minutes
- 5,164
- Goals
- 5
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 60/76
- Min / app
- 68
- Cards
- 7Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pavlovic…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €90M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
35% this player0% midfielder median98th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €200k
- Aug 2023
- Peak
- €90M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €90M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 10
- 1 club change
May 2026: €90M, Bayern Munich. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-01 | €200k | FC Bayern Munich II |
| 2023-12-14 | €2M | Bayern Munich |
| 2024-03-27 | €25M | Bayern Munich |
| 2024-05-29 | €30M | Bayern Munich |
| 2024-10-09 | €50M | Bayern Munich |
| 2024-12-20 | €50M | Bayern Munich |
| 2025-06-05 | €55M | Bayern Munich |
| 2025-12-19 | €65M | Bayern Munich |
| 2026-03-20 | €75M | Bayern Munich |
| 2026-05-27 | €90M | Bayern Munich |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.468
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Joint 3rd highest observed value among 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 99% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Pavlovic appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- DiomandeLWRB Leipzig · Bundesliga€90M
- MusialaAMBayern Munich · Bundesliga€100M
- UpamecanoCBBayern Munich · Bundesliga€70M
- DíazLWBayern Munich · Bundesliga€70M
- ValverdeCMReal Madrid · midfielders€90M
- RogersAMAston Villa · midfielders€90M
- CherkiAMManchester City · midfielders€90M
- FernándezCMChelsea FC · midfielders€90M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).