Dayot
Upamecano
CBFrance · Bayern Munich
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierBundesliga
DayotUpamecano
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Bayern Munich
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- France
- Age
- 27
- Height
- 186 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Upamecano at €70M. Model A, which never saw Upamecano during training, estimates €46.2M: the market value is 52% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.52. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €18.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 79
- Minutes
- 6,468
- Goals
- 4
- Assists
- 5
- Started
- 74/79
- Min / app
- 82
- Cards
- 17Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Upamecano…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €70M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
35% this player0% defender median97th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €800k
- Jul 2015
- Peak
- €70M
- Dec 2025
- Model target
- €70M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 31
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €70M, Bayern Munich. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-07-15 | €800k | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2016-06-01 | €1M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2016-10-06 | €3M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2016-12-22 | €5M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2017-06-19 | €7.5M | RB Leipzig |
| 2017-10-18 | €12M | RB Leipzig |
| 2017-12-28 | €20M | RB Leipzig |
| 2018-04-04 | €25M | RB Leipzig |
| 2018-06-05 | €30M | RB Leipzig |
| 2018-12-18 | €30M | RB Leipzig |
| 2019-06-05 | €30M | RB Leipzig |
| 2019-10-02 | €40M | RB Leipzig |
| 2019-12-17 | €50M | RB Leipzig |
| 2020-04-08 | €45M | RB Leipzig |
| 2020-09-16 | €60M | RB Leipzig |
| 2021-02-10 | €60M | RB Leipzig |
| 2021-06-09 | €60M | RB Leipzig |
| 2021-12-22 | €55M | Bayern Munich |
| 2022-03-24 | €45M | Bayern Munich |
| 2022-06-09 | €40M | Bayern Munich |
| 2022-11-09 | €50M | Bayern Munich |
| 2022-12-23 | €60M | Bayern Munich |
| 2023-06-22 | €60M | Bayern Munich |
| 2023-12-14 | €60M | Bayern Munich |
| 2024-03-27 | €50M | Bayern Munich |
| 2024-05-29 | €45M | Bayern Munich |
| 2024-12-20 | €50M | Bayern Munich |
| 2025-06-05 | €50M | Bayern Munich |
| 2025-10-14 | €60M | Bayern Munich |
| 2025-12-19 | €70M | Bayern Munich |
| 2026-05-27 | €70M | Bayern Munich |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.415
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Joint 5th highest observed value among 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Joint 7th highest observed value among 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Upamecano appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- DíazLWBayern Munich · Bundesliga€70M
- KaneCFBayern Munich · Bundesliga€60M
- VuskovicCBHamburger SV · Bundesliga€60M
- KarlAMBayern Munich · Bundesliga€60M
- GuéhiCBManchester City · defenders€70M
- TimberRBArsenal FC · defenders€70M
- GvardiolCBManchester City · defenders€70M
- O'ReillyLBManchester City · defenders€70M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).