FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Xander

Severina

RWCuracao · Casa Pia AC

№ 778540Emerging €396k +0.42

Player dossierLiga Portugal

XanderSeverina

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Casa Pia AC
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Curacao
Age
25
Height
185 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Severina at €600k. Model A, which never saw Severina during training, estimates €396k: the market value is 52% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.52. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.42A €396k▼ −0.56B €1.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
14
Minutes
676
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
8/14
Min / app
48
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Severina…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €396k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Xander Severina's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 3rd, Assists per 90 44th, Minutes, two years 8th, Starts 47th, Minutes, last 365 days 8th, European club minutes 100th3rdGoals44thAssists8thMinutes47thStarts8thRecent100thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

86% this player0% attacker median100th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Oct 2021
Peak
€1.3M
Jun 2024
Model target
€600k
May 2026
Valuations
13
3 club changes
May 2026€600kCasa Pia ACValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €600k, Casa Pia AC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-10-12€25kADO Den Haag
2022-01-12€25kADO Den Haag
2022-06-23€100kADO Den Haag
2022-10-12€300kADO Den Haag
2023-04-03€500kADO Den Haag
2023-07-04€500kFK Partizan Belgrade
2023-12-27€800kFK Partizan Belgrade
2024-06-10€1.3MFK Partizan Belgrade
2024-12-30€1.2MMaccabi Haifa
2025-03-20€1MMaccabi Haifa
2025-06-13€1.2MMaccabi Haifa
2025-12-18€800kCasa Pia AC
2026-05-28€600kCasa Pia AC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.416

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 27% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 19% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Severina appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).